Showing posts with label Financial Crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Financial Crisis. Show all posts

Wednesday, 10 October 2012

No free lunches


With the coming reforms, the Government is reforming itself. Doing away with activities, it is not good at. It is finally letting competitive individual entrepreneurs do the business.   
We the Indians have been used to subsidization. Subsidized bus transport, subsidized electricity, subsidized schools, subsidized cooking gas, and subsidized petrol – overall a subsidized kind of life for last 60 years!
Subsidy is a price of the product which is artificially kept lower than its price in the market.There are market prices and then there are government ‘administered prices’.
Price system is a wonderful system that works so well, so efficiently, that we are not aware of it most of the time. We never realize how well it functionsuntil it is prevented from functioning.
Markets decide the price of products and services, which are based on demand and supply of that product. A single product is sold, purchased and priced at different levels at different locations. A green leafy vegetable costs a person Rs 10/- in wholesale vegetable market (mandai), while the same costs Rs 25/- in a distant location in the same city, Pune.
Why?
‘Price’ is very subtle but a very powerful signal given by our markets. It tells us a lot about our products. How much they are being bought and sold, what is the pocket size of people who purchase it, and the speculation abilities of people who are selling it, how much of the product is available etc.  Small fluctuations in the price and people start reacting to it. A price enables people to prioritize and reprioritize their shopping baskets. Price is an indicator for both, the one who pays it, and the one who charges it.
Well, markets function very well when left to themselves, no doubt they go up and they go down. People gain and people lose. It’s all a game of profits and losses. Governments intervene in the markets, to hold the game, and to perform an impossible task of “stabilizing the prices”. Controlling prices in such a way either creates surplus, or shortages of the products in question. Government sets price cap on electricity, we have shortages; government sets price floor (farm support price) we have a surplus. With price control people consume more than what they need, other lose jobs and shut businesses.    
We have appointed the government system to collect taxes from rich people, and give us products and services on discount. We shut our eyes towards the fact that, ultimately the guy only becomes rich by charging higher prices, which then we consumers pay for it. In short, we pay twice, we face the higher prices in markets charged by allegedly rich guys and we pay administrators and misbelieve that we are getting cheaper bus, cheaper electricity, and cheaper food. Well, Government liked the job of winning hearts of voters by providing them cheaper commodities and services and playing a role of ‘robin hood’
Along with looting money from rich guys, Government also sometimes printed cheaper money, which further decreased purchasing power of money in our hands.
Generally,producers want the prices to go up and consumers want prices to go down. Besides, there are psychological effects of prices in the economy! An able (working) individual is both, sometimes a producer and sometimes a consumer. 
Sooner, or later the government comes to realize it has created a lot of mess and the hard fact that it has no business doing business, and so asks us to settle matters through mutual transactions –market place.
Government is reforming itself. Doing away with activities, it is not good at. It is finally letting competitive individual entrepreneurs do the business.   
Apparently so far, we have been living in a kind of environment where we know price of everything and the cost of nothing.When economic advisors tell us that we better pay the “true” market price for all that we buy;we need to understand the economics behind it and for once become economically correct!The current national economic reforms are thus a thing to celebrate and sharpen our entrepreneurial skills.
- Meenal Inamdar 
9/10/2012

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In response to this article, Vishwajeet Kadam takes a theoretical review of subsidies and also talks about changing economic policies.  

When we are talking about subsidies, let's start some historical inquiry of the theoretical framework behind the phenomenon 'subsidies' or what we call on a very general level, 'Government intervention'. The history of economic thinking (right from Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, David Ricardo to some modern economists like Fredrich Hayek and Milton Friedman) shows that the economic thinking has always favored minimal or no role of the government in the economy. Classical economists had assumed 'Wage-Price Flexibly  and 'Say's Law'. In 1930s, during The Great Depression, the belief in free market economy, Say's law (Supply creates its own demand) and wage-price flexibility was shattered. It was realized that when markets are left to themselves, they fail. It was John Maynard Keynes who understood the inherent instability of the capitalistic system (Karl Marx had already talked about it but in terms of 'inherent contradiction of capitalism'). According to Keynes, capitalistic system is an inherently unstable system for three reasons. First, the people who save are not the same ones who invest. Second, there exists wage-price rigidity in the short run for various reasons. Third, investments take place not on the basis of some rational calculations of future returns but profit expectations which depends on what he called 'animal spirit'. What he wanted to say was that the investment decisions taken on the basis of profit expectations generally do not have any rational basis and investors behave in a very impulsive and therefore 'animalistic' manner. The whole and sole determinant of the investment in the economy in the short run is Marginal Efficiency of Capital, 'Profit Expectations' being the most important part of it which depends upon the 'animal spirit' as there is no rational way of deciding it.

Now, in a capitalistic system, according to Keynes, the factors determining the savings and the factors determining the investments are different. So, there always exists a strong possibility of capitalistic system being in equilibrium state at under full employment level. There exists a strong possibility of overproduction as there is a strong possibility of saving gap. The implication of this phenomenon is that government has to play an active role in the economy. It has to fill the saving gap by increasing investment demand (an element of effective aggregate demand) for which the government will have to borrow. Therefore, fiscal deficit is considered as an important aspect to keep the capitalistic economy at full employment level. Despite the supply shocks occurred in 1970s, the rise of supply side economics and monetarism, the developments in the understanding of the operations of business cycles (Samuelson and Hicks business cycle theories), this Keynesian analysis of the working of capitalism is considered as the fundamental one in the understanding of capitalism. This is how the whole economic thinking changed with the advent of Keynesian analysis and economists started supporting active government intervention.


Meenal, you have talked about the markets and price system working efficiently. What you have said is true but it is a half truth. What you are talking about is not the actual market that exists in reality but some ideal form of market, known as 'Perfect Competition' or what is also called 'Pareto Optimal Condition . The idea of perfect competition has its own set of assumptions. Homogeneous product, large number of buyers and sellers, perfect information and information symmetry, free entry and exist are some of them which do not at all exist in reality. In reality, there is product differentiation, only few sellers (in most of the industries), barriers for the new entrants, large costs, some control over the price (few sellers being the most important reason of it) which result in imperfect forms of competition, namely monopolistic competition and oligopoly. Therefore markets fail. Markets fail because they are never 'perfect'. Another most important reasons for market failures are incomplete markets, natural monopoly and imperfect as well as asymmetric information (some have more information of the market than others for various reasons). Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz has worked on 'market failures' extensively. He got nobel for his work on 'information asymmetry'.

Coming back to the issue of subsidies, one has to understand the various implications of neoliberal economic policies. With the implementation of neoliberal economic policies, what is called 'international finance' becomes a very dominant factor. Once you accept the neoliberal strategy, you have to follow all the rules of the game. The growth and development depends on where this 'international finance' ultimately goes. The state has to keep this international finance happy. This international finance ultimately takes away the sovereignty of the state in economic sphere. International finance does not like the meddling government and therefore, to attract international finance, the government has to withdraw the interventionist policies. (Therefore the withdrawal of the subsidies and FDI in retail). But with this withdrawal, the crisis of capitalism (crisis of overproduction with minimal role of government in the economy as explained by Keynes) gets restored in the economy again. This is the contemporary crisis of capitalism. The government is withdrawing its role not for some more efficient system but because it does not have other choice. Some New Keynesians like Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman are proposing a new system, i.e. current capitalism - international finance = new capitalism. What they do not understand is that this 'new capitalism' will be fundamentally different from the idea of capitalism itself. This makes it very important to devise an alternative development strategy (especially for third world countries) that get us out of the trap of the neoliberal policies.

Enough of the economic and positivist argument. There are larger political, social, normative and philosophical aspects involved in the issue of withdrawal of subsidies and understanding of capitalism which overpower the economic and optimizational aspects of it. But about them, sometime later!


- Vishwajeet Kadam 
(He is pursuing education in Politics and Economics)

Wednesday, 23 May 2012

रूपया का घसरला?

आंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजारपेठेत आजच्या दिवशी (२३ मे २०१२) किंवा गेल्या ३-४ दिवसात रूपया घसरला हे काही एकदम किंवा नवीनच काहीतरी आक्रित घडलेले नाही. रूपया घसरणयाची कारणे नव्याने शोधण्यात वेळ घालवायची काहीच गरज नाही. कारणे ही जुनीच व माहित असलेलीच आहेत. फरक एवढाच की, ही कारणे जागतिक मंदी नसताना जेवढी जाणवत नव्हती, तेवढी ती आता प्रखर परिणामकारक ठरत आहेत. अगोदरच कुपोषित असलेल्या बालकाची तब्येत दुष्काळ आला आणि एकदमच ढासळली यात नावीन्य ते काय? हे होणारच होते ! असेच आपल्या भारताचे !

परदेशी सहल करणार असाल तेव्हा, किंवा इतरही काही वेळेला सहजच उत्सुकता म्हणून जेव्हा तुम्ही एखाद्या देशाच्या चलनाची रूपयामधील किंमत पाहता, ती कशी ठरलेली असते? तर भारताचे त्या त्या देशाशी असलेल्या व्यापारसंबंधांवर. आज जागतिकीकरणाच्या युगात देशादेशांमधील व्यापाराला अनन्यसाधारण महत्त्व प्राप्त झाले आहे. किंबहुना, प्रत्येक देशाची पत- श्रीमंती वा गरिबी ही व्यापार याच घटकावर अवलंबून आहे.

भारत इतर देशांमधील वस्तू व सेवांची आयात निर्यात म्हणजेच त्यांच्यातील व्यापार हा कोणासाठी फायद्याचा अथवा तोट्याचा आहे यावरून संबंधित देशांच्या चलनाची किंमत आंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजारात ठरते. उदाहरणार्थ – भारत व चीन मधील व्यापार, चीनमधून आयात वस्तूंचे प्रमाण भारतामधून चीनला निर्यात होणार्‍या वस्तूंपेक्षा जास्त असेल, म्हणजेच भारतासाठी निर्यात कमी व आयात जास्त अशी स्थिती असेल, अशामध्ये भारत चीनला जास्त “रूपये” (आयातमालाची किंमत) देऊ लागतो. यात भारताची व्यापारतूट व उलटपक्षी चीनची व्यापार नफेखोरी दिसते. यावरून आपणास असे समजते की, ज्या देशाची आंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजारातील निर्यात जास्त, तितके त्या देशाच्या चलनाचे मूल्यांकन अधिक.   

आंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजारातील गुंतागुंतीचे देशांतरित व्यवहार सोयीचे करण्यासाठी प्रत्येक देशाच्या चलनाचे मूल्यांकन ठरविण्यासाठी अमेरिकेचा डॉलर हे एकच “प्रमाण”  (standard currency) म्हणून स्विकारले. (याचे कारण असे की, अमेरिकेचा जगातील प्रत्येक देशाशी होणार्‍या व्यापाराचे व एकूणच अमेरिकेच्या बाजारातील व्यापाराचे प्रमाण हे इतर कुठल्याही देशाच्या तुलनेत प्रचंड आहे). व्यापारासाठी प्रत्येक देशाने आपल्याजवळील डॉलरचा साठा वाढविण्यास सुरूवात केली ती याच काळात व याच कारणासाठी. सध्या भारताचा परकीय चलनाचा साठा ४२ अब्ज डॉलरपर्यंत खाली आला असून कर्ज मात्र १०१ अब्ज डॉलरवर पोचले आहे.      

म्हणजे आज जी आपण रूपयाची अमेरिकी डॉलर च्या तुलनेतील घसरण पाहतो, ती केवळ भारताचा अमेरिकेशी होणार्‍या व्यापारातील तूट आहे असे नाही. कारण भारताचा जगातील इतर सर्व देशांशी होणार्‍या व्यापाराचे (तूट अथवा फायदा) हे मोजण्याचे प्रमाण –एकच- रूपयाचे अमेरिकी डॉलरच्या तुलनेतील मूल्यांकन.

आज भारताचा व्यापार हा मुख्यत्वे आखातातील देश व युरोपातील देशांशी चालतो. आपल्या देशाचा सर्वात जास्त पैसा खर्च होतो तो इंधन आयातीवर. औद्योगिक प्रगतीच्या ओघात अवजड उद्योग, तसेच अनावश्यक मोटारींचा अतिवापर यामुळे देशाच्या आजच्या इंधन आयातीत ऐतिहासिक वाढ दिसते. देशातील ७०% इंधन आयात करावे लागते, त्यामुळे त्यावर देशाच्या उत्पन्नातील ३०% इतके प्रचंड परकीय चलन खर्च करावे लागते. इतके पैसे मोजून आयात केलेल्या याच इंधनावर देशांतर्गत सरकारी अर्थसहाय्य (subsidy) असल्याने या वस्तूची किंमत वसूल होणे लांबच, उलट सरकारचा अजून पैसा खर्च होतो. यामुळे देशाला कर्ज घ्यावे लागते. हे कर्ज दिवसेंदिवस वाढतच आहे. जागतिक मंदीच्या पार्श्वभूमीवर प्रगत देशांमध्ये भविष्यासाठी इंधनतेलाची साठवणूक करण्याची सुरू झालेली स्पर्धा ही इंधनाची आंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजारातील किंमत वाढविण्यात भर घालीत आहेत. परिणामी, ज्यांना विकासासाठी इंधनाशिवाय पर्याय नाही, अशा भारतासारख्या देशांचा इंधनावरील खर्च वाढतो आहे.

दुसरी आयात वस्तू म्हणजे सोने, असे म्हणतात की देशातील ९०% पेक्षा जास्त सोने आयात केले जाते. इतर उंची वस्तू, डाळी या भारताच्या व्यापार तूटीमध्ये भर घालणार्‍याच आहेत.   

रूपयाची किंमत घसरली, की परदेशी गुंतवणूकदारही आपापले भांडवल देशातून हलवितात, कारण मग त्यांचा नफा कमी होऊन त्यांना येथे व्यापार करणे परवडेनासे होते. भारताच्या हलाखीच्या परिस्थितीत ही आणखीनच भर.
चालू खात्यावरील तूट (current account deficit) कमी करणे  (चालू खाते – ज्यामध्ये देशाच्या दैनंदिन व्यवहारासाठी लागणाया वस्तूंची आयात दिसते, उदाहरणार्थ- इंधन, याची आयात कमी होईल हे पाहणे), परदेशी भांडवलाचा आटलेला ओघ पुन्हा सुरू होईल असे प्रयत्न करणे,  देशाच्या एकूण विकासाच्या घोडदौडीविषयी जगात निर्माण झालेल्या शंकांचे निरसन करणे (corruption, scams, poor infrastructure), राजकीय स्थैर्य प्रस्थापित करणे आणि उत्तरोत्तर वाढतच जाणार्‍या आर्थिक तूटीकडे गांभीर्याने पाहण्यास सुरवात करणे, हे रूपयाची घसरण रोखण्याचे देशासमोरचे मार्ग आहेत.
या वर्षभरात रूपया ५% ने घसरला असून रॉयटर्स या संस्थेने दैनंदिन आंतरराष्ट्रीय चलन निरीक्षणामध्ये रूपया हे आशिया खंडातील सर्वात खराब कामगिरी केलेले चलन आहे असे म्हटले आहे. फेब्रुवारी २०१२ मध्ये उच्चांक गाठल्यानंतर या ३ महिन्यांमध्ये रूपया १३% ने खाली घसरला आहे. रूपयाच्या या घसरणीला जागतिक मंदीमध्ये देशाची चालू खात्यावरील वाढत चाललेली तूट व ती कमी करण्यासाठी संथगतीने चाललेले अपुरे धोरणात्मक बदल हेच जबाबदार आहेत.


देश चालविण्यासाठी रोजच्या गरजेच्या लागणार्‍या वस्तूंसाठीचा खर्च कर्ज घेऊन भागविणे आपल्या देशाला काही नवीन नव्हते,  परंतु जागतिक मंदीच्या तडाख्यात न सापडता सुटका झाली असली तरी, आता मात्र भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्थेला दणके बसायला सुरूवात झाली आहे.    


-          मीनल इनामदार

Monday, 21 May 2012

Is Greed Really That Good??

The title has been tweaked and used from a Hollywood block buster “Wall Street” released in 1987, wherein an investor giant said “Greed is good, Greed is necessary for the evolution of Corporate America.” Today look what greed has brought to America, with its national debt approximately at about 15.5 trillion dollars, which is almost 100% of its GDP.

America more than doubled its debt after the 2008 finacial crisis. Nearly half of this debt is owned by China. This is the  country which once spent nearly half that amount that it now owns to China  in cold  war to keep the communists at bay!!! If that is not irony then what is? What was the credit crisis and how did it come along? Why do a handful of people bring about a downfall of so many? When everything is priced, ethics are dumped freely and greed is bought and sold preciously. The crisis brought about the collapse of Lehman brothers and caused worldwide chaos.

It all started in and around the year 2000-2001 after the dot com bubble burst and the 9/11 incident, that the interest on AAA rated treasury bills by US Federal Reserve was reduced to 1% to keep the economy buoyant as this induced easy credit in the market. This increased huge borrowing from the Federal Reserve by banks and other financial institutions which fueled a massive growth in sub prime mortgage. A subprime mortgage is basically a loan amount lent to a borrower who would not qualify for a conventional loan as result of his poor credit rating. These loans carry more interest rates then the prime lending rate and hence are much more riskier. Due to the rise in the housing prices and availability of cheap credit, these type of subprime offerings were often very lucrative as the lenders thought that even if the loans were defaulted the house could be sold at higher prices. Further to this, the risk could be sold as a Collateralized Debt Obligation or a CDO to another investor wanting to make good on the higher interest rates. CDO worth billions of dollars were bought and sold by financial institutions and investment banks. This was a ticking time bomb.

During the year 2006 due to availability of large unsold houses largely due to housing boom of previous years, housing rates began to plunge. The rates plunged as much as 20% of the original house value. Subprime owners could not pay their mortgages as the value of their houses had dropped and they wanted to restructure the mortgage to adjust for the same which was just not possible, so they defaulted and houses were foreclosed. Few simply didn't have that much money to cough up so they too defaulted. Banks ended up holding these so called subprime mortgages or foreclosed houses whose values were going south dangerously. As a result the overleveraged banks simply started collapsing and going bankrupt as they could not sell any of these toxic CDO.

Lehman Brothers was the first one to go belly up, others followed suit. Its implications are felt till today, with Europe still in crisis, America in deep debt and regulation being enforced on banking sectors in the States.

When we try to create something out of nothing, this is when you know you are in deep trouble. The people in US thought they could create a housing bubble and boost the economy but they ended up putting the country in a deep long drawn recession. This is crisis of the credit where greed took over sanity.


- Rupali Ghate